Market Updates



  • Volatility—It’s a Real Drag
    by (Brad McMillan) on June 23, 2017 at 7:02 pm

    In yesterday’s post, I explained that the noise in returns—in other words, how much they bounce around—is what imposes much of the risk when investing over shorter periods. When you might lose 20 percent or more in a year, any plans that start soon thereafter can be derailed. Volatility (i.e., the noise) is a real drag in that sense. […]

  • Time Horizons and Why They Matter
    by (Brad McMillan) on June 22, 2017 at 7:05 pm

    One of the key points I made in yesterday’s post was about your time horizon, and how shorter time frames call for more caution than do longer ones. But this is actually a bigger point, which applies to multiple areas of investing and life. So, I thought I would make the discussion more general. […]

  • 2017 Vs. 1999: Now What Should We Do?
    by (Brad McMillan) on June 21, 2017 at 8:04 pm

    From our recent analysis, we can conclude that stock market risk is high. We can conclude that, even if things are different this time, they probably aren’t different enough to make a meaningful change in the outcome. And we can conclude that 2017 might well be 1999 all over again. […]

  • 2017 Vs. 1999: Could It Be Different This Time?
    by (Brad McMillan) on June 20, 2017 at 7:34 pm

    In several recent posts, I have made the case that today’s economy looks quite a bit like 1999—and that the markets may be setting up to look like 2000. Although this argument certainly seems reasonable, we have to ask ourselves how it could be wrong. Despite all the similarities, could it be different this time? If so, how? And what would that mean? […]

  • Monday Update: Weak Economic Data Across the Board
    by (Brad McMillan) on June 19, 2017 at 5:34 pm

    Last week, we saw a wide range of economic data. Overall, the news was disappointing, with all indicators coming in below expectations. In many cases, however, the details were better, as annual numbers often remained in healthy territory. Still, future growth acceleration is becoming less likely as signs accumulate that the economy has peaked. That being said, growth is expected to continue, just at a lower level than anticipated earlier this year. […]

  • 2017 Vs. 1999: When Will the Storm Hit?
    by (Brad McMillan) on June 16, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    I concluded in yesterday’s post that there might well be a storm coming. So, the next question we need to answer is this: How will we know when the storm is about to hit? […]